-2. "Why Most Published Research Findings are False" on Counterpoint

- 3. Naked scientists revealed into an incredible study : HIV controlled easily in apes

- 4. Also on Counterpoint was geologist Ian Plimer really laying into Climate Panic people "the changes they talk about are so tiny I have difficulty staying awake.. climae has changed far more rapidly and CO2 been magnitudes higher in the past."
- I'd always thought that Climate panic people were incorrect when they talk about volcano CO2 being small cos they are talking about normal years, whereas in yeas of super volcano eruptions CO2 is massive, but Plimer threw in the theory that 85% of volcano CO2 never gets counted cos it's undersea.

- They started off with a clip from a TV documentary where a schoolboy and his family talk about a miraculous change in him where he has suddenly become interested in schoolwork and then features Winston of test tube baby fame reading an explanation about it's all due to Omega 3 and it's amazing effect on the brain all in a slow scientific tone. Trouble is it's TV and the producers have virtually made it all up. Omega 3 doesn't have a miraculous effect on the brain it's just supplement industry hype, you can bet if it did they'd be there with the evidence, but no published trial of healthy people has reported such effect.

- Goldacre told of how his bullshit detectors "went off" when a supplement company and Durham Council got massive press publicity for a trial they were doing on 4000 school children.
1. "Does it work ?".. "yes everyone of our previous 20 trials has come out positive", :"wow, let me see them ", "no they are secret" .. doh
2. (It's important to set targets vefore a trial, as drug companies are renowned for picking the aims after for spin)
"what about the experimental procedure for this one ?", "em, it's not a trial", they had used the word trial in most press releases.

- So after the exams he says "what's the effect ?" , They say "wait wait", and then say "it was never our intention to collect exam data". So after telling the whole world it was a big trial, when the results didn't go the way they expected they shut up.

John Ioannidis - Winner's Curse http://www.abc.net.au/rn/counterpoint/stories/2008/2420024.htm for audio and full transcript

1- The most dramatic paper will get published more easily and then become more cited most will turn out to be proved wrong afterwards. 5-out of 6 for randomised 1/4 for randomised trials.

2- the follow the leader effect : In some circumstances the follow up tests which should independently verify instead suffer from herding , where people try to get the same results in order to access research funding available to dramatic studies and don't want to contradict

3- the Oligopoly Effect - a minority of journals carry a huge weight - such that one report in them would seem to outwiegh 5 reports in others

4- Rush to contradict - opposite of 2 - funding might be available if can find opposite extreme etc etc

5- examples include no negative publications for antidepressants giving the false impression there are no negative studies

6- improvements - we at least need to be aware of the biases

- Applying his own rules to himself : you can’t more hyperbolic than saying something like Most Published science is wrong... isn't he doing exactly what he accuses other people of ..coming up with extreme alarmist evidence ?

In life we don't get the truth news is about the irregular not the regular .. we don't get offered fruit cos other things are more profitable.

- 1. seem illogical cos biologically it's about avoiding tipping points.
- When a customer buys a slightly smaller product for $9.99 instead of the other product for $10.20 he is being mathematically foolish, but his brain is programmed through evolution not too make such precise calculations, but to look for tipping points so that decisions can be made quickly so it seems that People cannot count

- 2. Deceived in a modern world - evolutionary biological decision making makes the seemingly illogical work better than number crunching logic , but in a modern world this is exploited by advertisers, media and other people with agendas like religions etc.