- Average wage is skewed compared to other concepts cos it has a lower limit, but not an upper
- If you use "a mean" the millionaires in the population make average wage seem very high.

- So best to use "the median" order the people in a line and then pick the n/2 person his salary is the median.

- In the UK mean is £ 31K, the median is £ 25K.

- The Private sector don't earn more
- Public sector workers earn less than the mean, but more than the median so most public sector workers are better off than they would be in the private sector.

- Smart boy makes a profit 75% of the time, but half the time when he makes a profit the bank hasn't so he gets a bonus 37.5% of the time.

- When the pack make a profit 50% of the time, but cos they are the majority their good years coincide with the banks profit years. And so they get a bonus in 100% of the 50% of good years i.e. Their average a bonus in 50% of years.

- OK, but I question the assumption that the banks don't pay a bonus when Smart Boy has made a huge profit, but the others haven't .. then they are stupid !
- the rule seems to work whatever the profit %s are e.g.
- Bank 40% Smart Boy 80% = 32% bonus,
- Bank 5% Smart Boy 95% = 4.75% bonus

- Is follow the pack genetically hardwired ?- Imagine in mammoth hunting the mammoth always come to a fork in the path and 50% of the time goes left/right. Big nose can detect the mammoths route 75% of the time, the rest of the people just follow the unskilled leader. Big nose gets to the mammoth 75% of the time, but half the time the pack is not there to help him so he eats 37.5% of the time, whereas the pack eat 50% if the time.

- Football In the pub I support the Blues who are a better team winning 70% of the time, whereas the pack support the Reds who win 30% of the time. So they are happy 30% of the time, but for me 70% of the 70% times the Blues win I am a winner in a miserable pub only 30% of 70% of times am I a winner in a happy pub = 21% of the time. So better follow the pack !

- is this a metaphor for my life ?- e.g. In town there is the Disco 1 with good music and £1 entrance and Disco 2 the posy disco with crap music and £10 entrance, but it's where the crowd go. So I'd probably find myself in Disco 1 with no chance of meeting a girlfriend.

- I usually spend my life out-thinking the crowd and getting a better deal than them, but maybe that's the wrong thing to do.

In the Kurt Vonnegut novel Jailbird. One of the inmates ran a Ponzi scheme. He promised people high profits, took their capital and then used that same capital to pay the profits to them, with the rest of the capital he led the fast live and everyone loved him. He didn't feel guilty cos he thought he was providing a service to his customers making them happy cos on they believed in the dream that their capital was still there whilst they enjoyed huge profits.

- Later he writes about how he couldn't understand how suddenly after the great depression the same guy who had been wearing carboard shoes was now driving a new jeep and everyone was leading the high life, but there was no new money it was all on credit. He described the whole economy of being a giant Ponzi scheme. People were using the profits for today's living, but their children would never get the capital back. post crash market being a Ponzi scheme and finance in general.

- I have been sitting on this iidea for ages without writing it up. To me it's the epitome of our stupid society. In the UK most people have a Mortgage and a Pension.
- They are borrowing say $100,000 at the same time as having $50,000 invested in a pension. to me that's completely irrational, they are betting that they can make more money on their pension investment than the interest on their mortgage. Look if interest rates are say 50% over 10 years then now you owe the bank $150,000 plus whatever it's addministration charges and profits are say $3000. If you pension fund also rose by 50% you have $75,000 so your net is 153-75= $78,000 debt... look you started off with a $50,000 net debt. To stay still your pension would have to have grown by 103%, but why would a bank lend money to people at 50% if the average profit on the investment market is 103% ?
- you might speak of risk, but if they have 1million customers the risk evens out for the bank that's why I say average profit.

- So I argue people should never be borrowing and investing at the same time. You should pay off your mortgage before you invest a cent.

-Arguments against
- 1. it is spreading risk -
- 2. Governments skew it by giving tax incentives
- 3. It seemed to have worked

- 1. Normally you shouldn't have all your eggs in one basket, if you have money in investment fund 1 and fund 2 and fund 1 falls well at least fund 2 probably rises. But a mortage is different your investment cannot actually fall. True if you use all your money for morgage then you may miss out investing in a super profitable fund.

- 2. Government tax incentives if my mortgage costs are $300 a month then the government may forgive me tax equivalent to the internet part of that so the guy John who's paid off his mortgage pays $30 more tax. In addition sometimes they might leave untaxed money I set aside for pension. So John who doesn't have a pension migt pay $30 more tax. Over time I think :John should still be better off than me though

- 3. It seemed to have worked - This is crazy investment funds like the stock exchange have consistently risen faster than interest rates ... Banks really have been lending to people at say 100% over 10 years when if they had invested in the market they would have made 200%. That's bizarre it's like I borrow $100K from the bank and buy their shares with the money. After 10 years I owe them $200K, but the shares I bought in them have risen to a value of $300K. where's this extra money come from

- I accept the reality that in the past people have successfully played the game, but I would still go for the sure investment of paying off my mortgage over the possible high returns of having a pension

- on a different matter I wouldn't have a morgage anyway cos I think the advantage of renting like having no risk, no maintenance cost and flexibility mean I would prefer not to buy a home.